The rate of growth of the DNCL has slowed from its initial flood and is now a mere trickle. The percentage of numbers subscribed also varies by area code. It will be interesting to see if there is a significant change when numbers begin coming off the list after three years.
As of late November 2008, the 416 area code alone had almost 433,000 entries and had been growing about 5% per week for the past month. Even small areas like 506, with only 88,954 entries on Nov 23rd had been following a similar pattern.
The last week of November broke with this pattern of slow growth and saw at least 20% increase in the National Do Not Call List in every area code we currently handle on behalf of our customer base.
From our own logs of activity we can tell you that at the beginning of December 2008 of all the telephone numbers looked up by all our users during the past two months, 24.87% were on the National Do Not Call List (NDNCL). The same figure for the last week of November 2008 was 25.73%.
The first week of December continued to show an above average rate of additions to the National Do Not Call List across the board: in the region of 10% for most of the area codes we currently service. Despite the increase in registered do not call numbers there has been no increase in hit rate, with the frequency of Do Not Call hits remaining close to 25% at 24.97%.
Increase in the second week of December at 2%-4% was lower than usual. Hits remain just over 25% for year to date and the month of December. In the first full week of the new year growth was in the region of 2.2% after a slow period over Christmas and New Year, and hit rate is just over 23%. We have a new telemarketer in the 519 area who is experiencing much higher hit rates. From our analysis she is finding only 45.6% of numbers tried since the start of 2009 have been safe to call - a hit rate of 54%! This is probably a very localised effect or it would have more influence on the overall average.
The middle of January 2009 continues to see an increase of about 2% in the size of the do not call list, with considerable variation by area.
In the U.S. more than half of all consumer telephone numbers are registered. Polls in Canada have indicated 60% of us are interested in placing our numbers on the Do Not Call List. Thus far it looks like only a quarter have actually done this, so we can reasonably expect the current lists to approximately double in size over the next few years.
Another 30 weeks at the current growth rate will see us reach that 60% level some time in July of 2009.
The growth rate of the list slowed significantly, such that January 2010 queries showed a hit rate of only 41.5% across all the areas we currently cover. The 905 area code showed a higher than average hit rate of 45.9%. Area 519 had the highest hit rate at 56.2%, and area 502 had the lowest at 15.4%. In other words, the chance that a number you want to call is on the national do not call list is around 40%, but may well be higher or lower depending on the area code.
We were asked in October of 2010 about the current hit rate for area 416. Investigation showed a recent query count at that time on our database for the 416 area of 38,234 with 13,686 rejected. That made the hit rate for area 416 about 35.8% (64% of numbers queried are NOT on the DNCL). This compares with an overall hit rate on area 905 of 48.6% and for all areas we service of about 45.2%. This indicates the DNCL is continuing to grow faster than the number of subscribers, though the rate of growth has slowed considerably.
Bell have been successful in getting a rate hike for their fees for using the list. It is a big hike, more than doubling the cost in some cases, with the least increase being for those who buy the entire country on an annual basis. We suspect that Bell is trying to force small businesses out of telemarketing for themselves and into using big call centers. It would make things easier to regulate, but may constitute a conflict of interest since Bell is a major operator of telemarkeing call centers and a provider of compliance services.